And don’t it feel good? Hey! The ol’ fashioned Sunday morning rain-dance came through for one Jag this week, ending a tumultuous 8 week drought. Both the Rams and Eagles went off last week, scoring 51 points a piece, both routing their respective competitors (what happened to the Broncos?). The firework show last weekend in East Rutherford has one Jag excited to roster essentially the entire offense of “The Greatest Show on Surf”. However, DJ has his work cut out for him in the head-to-head forum, after a casual 169 DKpt performance netted the big boss his first win of the season and some nice change (if I do say so myself). DJ does still hold the season long head-to-head record, but both Jags are confident in their Week 10 rosters and feel in midseason form heading into Sunday. Enough jibber-jabber (oh, and Zeke is suspended again we think)… Let’s get to it – Who Yinz Got?
Quarterback
Payoffs:
Chris – Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4,900 vs NYJ) – *spits out drink*… Yep, you read that right. If you follow my NBA write-ups (I know..few and far between), you know I’m a sucker for the “read inbetween the lines” type picks. Possible revenge game for Fitzy? In reality, probably not. In my mind, you better believe it. Fitzpatrick is actually in a pretty good spot here, and is sooo cheap that it’s hard to ignore. In week 6 as the started, Fitzy posted 22.6 DKpts, a steal at $4.4K that week. The Jets are a little bit of a tough read from a fantasy matchup; they have given up the most passing TDs of any defense (19), they are in the bottom third in the league for passing yards allowed, but are in the top ten in interceptions. The knock on Fitzpatrick has been his turnovers, with a career 1.2:1 touchdown to interception rate. However, coming into this game as the backup of the team makes me feel a little better. I expect a lot of check downs and mid-range passing plays designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly, specifically in the red-zone (re: my stack this week). I can see the headline now, “The Amish Rifle Fires Back” lining the top of the NY Times Monday morning. Can you?
DJ – Jared Goff ($6,700 vs HOU) – It’s time to start drinking the Kool-Aid that Sean McVay and the LA Rams are providing. The Rams own the highest scoring offense in the league and man is that weird to write after years of offensive futility. One of the driving forces behind the offensive turnaround is second year QB Jared Goff. Goff owns a 13:4 touchdown to interception ratio this season and averages 253.8 yards per game. Those figures, coupled with a 60.2 completion percentage, have propelled Goff to 18.1 DKpts per week on average. I can see no reason why the hottest offense in football will be stopped this week. Houston, minus JJ Watt in case anyone forgot, has been scuffling since losing their defensive leader. I’m pretty sure they have been targeted by at least one of the Jags (us, not the team) as a matchup to find Payoffs since Watt’s injury. Bartender! Another round of that Kool-AId.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Jameis Winston ($5,400 vs NYJ) – Don’t worry, I cleared this Jag pick with my cohort and he agreed wholeheartedly. Winston is OUT this Sunday, but if you’ve been real successful this year in DK and are looking for a challenge, he is still eligible to be rostered at $5.4K. Nothing like putting yourself in a hole to start the week. This pick was simple and necessary, here’s why. Did you guys see that “pump-up” video of Winston last Sunday trying to get his team fired up to (can’t make this stuff up), “eat a W”…”That’s a W, that’s a W, how many people want to eat a W?!” “Let’s eat one!” Awkward, lame,…weird? Honestly, after painfully watching that video, I refuse to roster Winston the remainder of the year. He is on probation from my DK rosters for the 2017-18 season. We will review his case over the offseason, but man was that bad. If you haven’t seen it, check out our twitter for the video.
DJ – Drew Brees ($6,900 @ BUF) – You’re going to be hearing a lot about this game as you read on. The Saints have traditionally not fared well in outdoor games, add in that it’s November and Buffalo usually starts accumulating snow as soon as the calendar turns to Nov. 1 and it’s a recipe for disaster for the Saints. Buffalo’s defense has been stingy this year as they rank in the top 5 for points allowed and should continue to hold their rank after this week. Top pass catcher Michael Thomas has been dealing with an ankle injury all week and although he didn’t make the final injury report, the cold air in Buffalo could cause the ankle to stiffen, hindering Thomas and the passing game of the Saints.
Running Back
Payoffs:
Chris – Melvin Gordon ($7,200 @ JAX) – I’m excited for this matchup. Gordon is a top 10 rusher this year, and Jacksonville’s run defense is giving up an average of 125 rushing yards per game this year, good for 27th in the league. Aside from his inconsistency, Gordon has recently outplayed his current salary. He is averaging 20 DKpts per game on the season as whole, or right about at 3x value for this price. However, Gordon has exceeded 35 DKpts in 2 of his last 4 games, against teams with run defenses in the bottom half of the league. He has thrown up some stinkers, but Gordon’s ceiling is one of the highest Week 10 has to offer. Sticking with the theme of potentially made up story lines, I think Gordon is relishing the opportunity to go up against Fournette and prove himself. Fournette has been getting a lot of press this season, and rightfully so. But Gordon is another one of the league’s many promising young backs. I look for Gordon to be running with a little extra umph on Sunday, especially against a defense that will shut down the passing game and force Rivers the Chargers to run.
DJ – Todd Gurley ($8,700 vs HOU) – I’ve been drinking so much Rams Kool-Aid that I’m shocked I haven’t been cut off yet. Todd Gurley’s return to prominence has been triggered by Jared Goff’s strong QB play, which has allowed more space for Gurley to run free, which has returned the Rams to fantasy relevance this season. The offense revolves around Gurley and his fantasy numbers prove it; Gurley has scored more than 20 DKpts in all but two games this season. The Rams have been focused on feeding the young man in not only the running game, but also in the passing game where he is averaging 3.6 receptions and 42.3 yards per game. Like last week I’m stacking a QB/RB combo to try and guarantee all offensive touchdowns scored go through my team and last I checked Houston is still without JJ Watt (I feel it’s my obligation to repeat this), so there should be a lot of those touchdowns. Oh look, I’ve finished another glass. Tarbender! Anooother rounndddd sirrrrr! This stuuuuffffffff iiiiiissssssssss grrrrrrrrreatt!
Jagoffs:
Chris – Aaron Jones ($6,400 @ CHI) – This price point is ridiculous. I understand why he get’s a little bump, but $6.4K is laughable. In 7 games played this year, Jones scored less than 5.2 DKpts 4 times. In his other three games, he has gone 25.8, 23.4 and 10.9. His upside is there, I guess? But the floor is non-existent. There are a ton of great RB plays this week, many of which I wrestled with mightily as my RB2 (shout out Ingramara, McKinnon, the likes) and Jones should not be on your radar. This is a situation where if he goes off, tip your cap to him and move on. GB and CHI is a great rivalry, and discount double-checkless or not, I don’t envision huge fantasy numbers coming out of this game from any angle.
DJ – Mark Ingram ($7,400 @ BUF) – Remember how I said you’re going to be hearing about this game a lot this week? Well, here we go again. This isn’t as much about weather as it is Alvin Kamara eating into Ingram’s workload. Since the Saints traded Peterson, Ingram has been one of the best backs in fantasy and I’m not one to argue with that. What I have been noticing though is that also since Peterson’s trade, Ingram’s touches have been decreasing each week. In Week 6, Ingram totaled 30 touches; Week 7: 26 touches; Week 8: 24 touches; Week 9: 17 touches. These usage numbers are reverting back to before the Peterson trade and there was a three-way split of touches. The worrisome part about the decreasing touches now is that there is only one other RB in Nawlins and he is the one I’d rather roster this week.
Wide Receiver
Payoffs:
Chris – Terrance Williams ($4,400 @ ATL) – Deciding who to write about was tough. Not because I wrestled with picks, but because I enjoy each WR I’m rostering for a different reason. I decided to land on Williams simply due to his significantly low price, the evolution of the Cowboys offense over the past few days (No Zeke (for real) and a questionable Dez), and his performance last week in which he put up 9 catches for 141 yards equating to 26.1 DKpts. Williams looked like Dak’s go to, even when Dez was in the game. A lot of people will be rostering Alfred Morris, which makes sense with Elliot out, but why not differentiate and take a chance with Williams. The DAL/ATL matchup has the highest O/U at 53 points, with Dallas as +3 dogs. If the game turns out like that, we will see Dak and the ‘Boys airing it out throughout the second half leading to a heavy dose of Williams.
DJ – Robert Woods ($5,000 vs HOU) – Lem….lemmme telll u aboud dis teaam man. I looovee thiiisss teeaaam mannnn. Imma thinkin’ dat Koool-Aiddd’s strongerrrr thaannn I thoughtt maannnn. Okay Imma geetttt throughh thiisss. Robert Woods has emerged as one of the main pass catching weapons in the Rams offense. Last week I rostered Cooper Kupp and was burned by Woods and his two touchdowns. Though the touchdowns do certainly help, Woods has actually had an extremely consistent line the grabbing at least 4 passes for 60 yards in the past 4 weeks. Throwing a lot of my trust into the Rams this week but remember, Houston is without JJ Watt and the Kool-Aid is stronggggggg wittthhh theessse ones. By Woods simply getting his DKpt average of 11.4 he will return 2x value on his $5,000 salary and leeemmme telllll youuu a number three receiver returning 2x value is goldennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn. Soooorrrrryyyy I thiinnnkk I ppppassseeed ooouuuuuttttt fooorrr a seeccconddd. Tar….Tarrrrr…you thereeee, I think I need some water.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Michael Thomas ($7,000 @ BUF) – Key piece of that…”@ BUF”. We are getting to the time of year when weather will have an impact on the passing game. The forecast in Buffalo initially looked like there may be some cold weather and precipitation. As we get closer to Sunday, the “Arctic Blast” appears to be heading out of town prior to kick off, but only time will tell. Regardless, NO’s offense has recently featured their two-headed monster coming out of the backfield in Ingramara and a cold-weather atmosphere could lead to those two getting the bulk of work. Weather or not, Thomas is still getting priced based upon his production last year. Thomas is only averaging 14.6 DKpts per game this season, which is barely above a 2x value. He has only exceed a 3x value at this price (21 DKpts) twice, in Weeks 3 & 4. Brees appears to have found some shiny new toys to run the offense through, so save your money and pay up for one-part Ingramara, or just another WR in general.
DJ – Stefon Diggs ($6,500 @ WAS) – Diggs recently got over a hamstring injury and was right back on the injury report this week. Don’t worry he didn’t re-injure his hammy. Instead he just had a root canal and missed some practice time. He may have wished it was the hammy this time as the Washington defense is no joke when it comes to covering opposing receivers as they have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. Another reason to stay away from Diggs this week is where the game is taking place. In away games Diggs is averaging a mere 4.4 DKpts. 4.4! I think one of us Jags could suit up for a game and score more than that! All joking aside I much prefer Thielen to Diggs this week among Minnesota wideouts.
Tight-End
Payoffs:
Chris – Cameron Brate ($4,100 vs NYJ) – Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick stack here. Let’s do some math…No Jameis (out eating W’s somewhere) + no Mike Evans (vaca with Johnny Football) = yes Cam Brate. The Jets rank 26th in the league against opposing TEs, and having Fitzpatrick at the helm should lead to some additional dinks and dunks down the field, of which Cam Brate should be the beneficiary of. Add in a few red zone targets and we are looking at a great opportunity for a breakout week. Honestly, if it weren’t for the Giants/Niners match-up, this game would be dubbed the dumpster fire of Week 10. Not even Vegas knows what to do, with an opening even spread and a low O/U of 43 points. I think that kind of situation is one that benefits the TE position and pass-catching RBs. With Doug Martin being a hard no for me, Cam Brate looks poised to produce.
DJ – Jack Doyle ($5,200 vs PIT) – I’m dubbing Doyle as the new Zach Ertz. Doyle is heavily involved in the offense the past couple weeks averaging 10 catches for 92 yards and .5 touchdowns and I don’t look for that to stop this week. Doyle will get double digit targets as the Colts offensive line will have trouble stopping the Steeler pass rush and Brissett will check down to Doyle early and often. To add into the often part of early and often, the Colts recent history against the Steelers hasn’t been friendly as Pittsburgh has thoroughly dominated the Colts, scoring an average of 41.3 points in their past 3 meetings. This means that the Colts will be playing from behind for most of the game and will have to throw the ball to stay in the game. Doyle will see a heavy workload and I want to be the benefactor of said workload which is why I’m rostering Doyle again this week.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Jason Witten ($4,600 vs KC) – Yes, again. I may lock in Witten here the rest of the year. It’s a worthy write-up this week though, with the anticipated new look Dallas offense. I foresee the WRs taking the bulk of additional work, not Morris and certainly not Witten. How Grandpa Jason is still $4.6K blows my mind. He is coming off of back to back weeks of 6.1 and 1.5 DKpts, respectively. In his past 6 games, Witten has only exceeded 5 targets one time. Once! I think the price tag is still just attached to the name, because Witten has all but fallen out of the offense in the Big D. Witten and Romo were boys, but it’s clear the Dak has other plans for the offense. Maybe Tony has an extra seat up in the booth for his old tight end…and maybe one for Witten too.
DJ – Jordan Reed ($5,100 vs MIN) – I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Reed hasn’t practiced all week and is just as likely to miss Sunday’s game as he is to play in it. His price tag of $5,100 can and should be spent elsewhere this week. Free advice: if you wanted to roster Reed this week, use this money to roster Vernon Davis, Reed’s backup, who is only $4,700 and in line for a lot of work.
FLEX
Payoffs:
Chris – Antonio Freakin’ Brown ($9,500 @ IND) – Truth be told, I would have paid anything for AB this week. He has absolutely torched the Colts in his career, and the 2017 version of the Colts have another thing coming for them. Brown has played the Colts 4 times in his career, putting up 7 TDs and 417 yards over that span. From a scoring perspective comparison, Brown has faced the CLE Brownies 12 times and has 7 TDs over that span. Brown is also 11 catches away from being the quickest WR to 700 receptions, and knowing Ben and Brown, they are suckers for breaking records. If Brown gets up around 7 or 8 catches through 3 quarters, Ben will start forcing him the ball to break the record, regardless of score – and I plan on being the direct beneficiary of their greed. Bring. It. On. AB leads the league in receptions and yards, and is second behind Larry Fitz in targets (Fitz played Thursday night). There is no analysis needed. If you can fit him in, you play him. It’s that simple. Alllll day baby.
DJ – Robby Anderson ($5,200 @ TB) – Since Week 6, Robby Anderson has been a stalwart in the Jets offense averaging 16.1 DKpts in that span. Anderson has also seen no less than five targets in seven straight games coming into Sunday’s matchup against Tampa Bay. My fellow Jag brought up Jameis Winston eating W’s, well opposing teams have been eating the Bucs passing D like Winston eats W’s (seriously, that video was weird). Tampa ranks 30th in the league against the pass, giving up an average of 272.4 yards per game. With the emergence of Josh McCown as a reliable QB and his rapport with Robby Anderson, Anderson has to be considered a steal at his price of $5,200. By just getting to his average of 16.1 DKpts over the past four weeks, Anderson will return 3x value and be worthy of a roster spot.
Defense/Special Teams
Payoffs:
Chris – Pittsburgh ($3,700 @ IND) – The writing is on the wall…This game is going to be a blow-out, leading to a panic-ridden Jacoby Brissett forcing the ball to Doyle and whoever else the Colts can roll out this week. TY Hilton is listed as questionable, which would be a disaster for IND if he can’t go. The Steelers are also coming off of a bye, and are getting Tuitt back which will make their front 7 that much stronger. As a Steelers die-hard, I can’t wait for this game. It has the slight stench of a trap game, but I really can’t envision the ‘Lers doing anything other than simply crushing the Colts. “Can’t wait” – Bart Scott (who then lost to the ‘Lers)
DJ – Chicago Bears ($3,000 vs GB) – Don’t look now, but the Bears defense hasn’t been this good since Brian Urlacher was roaming the middle of the field for them. Since Week 5, Chicago has averaged 14.75 DKpts per game. Hell, that’s better than some position players during that span. They are coming off a bye and get to face the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. Couple things to take note of in that previous statement: 1.) Green Bay is without Aaron Rodgers and will have Brett Hundley under center. 2.) Chicago has had two weeks to rest and prepare for Brett Hundley, scary thought. 3.) The game is being played at Soldier Field over Veterans Day weekend, something tells me this bodes well for the home squad.
Jagoffs:
Chris – New Orleans Saints ($3,400 @ BUF) – I’m gonna stick with the Saints again, after they did me dirty last week as the top-scoring D/ST (after I called them a Jag). This Buffalo team has a legit offense, and the addition of Kelvin Benjamin leaves the mind to wander and imagine what a Tyrod, Shady and Benjamin 3-pronged attack could look like. My answer, scary. Each of those three players are playmakers in their own right and I don’t want to “test” the new Bills offense with an arena team playing in 30 degree weather on the road for the first time this year.
DJ – Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,900 vs LAC) – There it is! Lock it in! The Jaguars are going to be a top 3 D/ST this week. If my track record has proven anything it’s that my defensive Jagoff pick is a lock for top end production. So use history to your advantage and ignore my Jagoff pick for defense, you’re wallet will thank you!
*On a serious note, this Saturday is Veteran’s Day. We at Fantasy Jags sincerely thank all actively serving and retired service members. Thank you all for your service. We are forever indebted to you and appreciate the sacrifices you have made on behalf of the citizens of the United States. We do not take what you do, and have done for us in the past, for granted. Thank you again!*
Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups. Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.
